Jeff Neiburg|The News Journal
PHILADELPHIA— Gabe Kapler still believes.
He stillbelieves that the Phillies, who had lost two in a row to the Mets as he stood at a desk in his office before Sunday night's series finale, were capable of putting a run together led by a "high-powered offense."
Kapler, of course, isn't going to say otherwise. In fact, he's being paid to inspire confidence in a team and an offense that has not been as potent as many thought it would be after it added Bryce Harper and others to the mix.
But a few hours later, inside his suite at Citizens Bank Park, general manager Matt Klentak was a little more prepared to put into words how trying 2019 has been.
The Phillies had a plan. They knew they needed a strong bullpen to support a rotation that was a little top heavy.
They knew David Robertson and Hector Neris were strong late-inning options. They knew Seranthony Dominguez and Adam Morgan and Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek were going to be reliablemiddle-inning arms. They had Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos working toward becoming capable pitchers.
They didn't know that only one of those pitchers, Neris, would beleft standing on Sept.1.
The Phillies entered Sunday with two of their eight opening day relievers at their disposal. What many ranked as a top 10 bullpen in baseball has been ravaged by injuries. Dominguez and Robertson's 2020 seasons arein danger.
"You have that many injuries concentrated in one area – in this case the bullpen – to say that it tests your depth is an understatement," Klentak said on the day rosters expanded across the league. "No organization has enough depth to replace as many guys as we’ve lost."
Try losing two of your three opening day outfielders, too. And then there are the bone spurs in the No. 2 pitcher's throwing elbow that ended his season.
These developments are catastrophic. They alter seasons in ways that even the most prolonged Harper hot streaks can't.
They change the expectations and modifywhat qualifies as success. The Phillies, per Fangraphs, havea 4% chance of making the playoffs after a 5-2 win Sunday night left them2.5 games back of the Chicago Cubs for the last wildcard spot.
They're likely going to miss the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season.
So it was fair to ask Klentak if he felt better about his team now compared with this date last season.
"It’s going to take a really impressive September run for us to overcome the Cubs and/or Washington," Klentak said. "And we know that. But we’re in position to play meaningful games in September, as we were a year ago. I think what I like about this year’s team is that it’s a team that’s built to compete this year, but it’s also a team that’s built to compete in future years.
"All of these players are going to be here for some time. And with all that said we still have a lot of flexibility this coming winter to address other areas. Now, I don’t know that we have another $330 million contract up our sleeve, but we certainly have the flexibility to be aggressive..."
Klentak, of course, was making forward statements. He knows the math.
He knows it's unrealistic to expect a team that loses six-plus bullpen arms, two-thirds of its starting outfield and doesn't quite hit well enough to actually make the postseason. He knows it's unrealistic, despite there being a month of baseball left, for the Phillies to overcome that 4% chance.
And it's unrealistic to think sweeping organizational changes are coming this winter, outside of the general manager taking some more of the owner's "stupid money" and bulking up the starting rotation.
Think the Phillies should get rid of Kapler? Well, you try going to your bullpen for a right-handed armin a high-leverage spot in the eighth inning of a meaningful September game and your choices arethe guy theReds placed on waivers (Jared Hughes) and the guy with the career 4.53ERA who's played for five teams in six seasons (Mike Morin).
You try winning important games needing the Sean Rodriguezes and Brad Millers of the world to deliver in big spots. Full disclosure, Miller hit an opposite field home run as soon as I hit the period that ended the last sentence. But you get the point.
Sunday night, needing a win to make up ground on the Cubs, the Phillies sent Zach Eflin to the mound, a pitcher whose 2019 has featured stints in the bullpen and bouts with a "heavy body." It worked.
Monday afternoon in Cincinnati, Drew Smyly, who failed to pitch six complete innings in five August starts,was scheduled totake a 6.95 ERA to the mound to start a seven-game roadtrip.
The Phillies, mostly Klentak, were wrong about their starting rotation, and they never had a healthy bullpen to make up for it. The Phillies have used 30 non-position-player pitchers in 2019, more than any of the 10 teams that ended Sunday in a playoff position.
"We're not always dealt the perfect hand," Kapler said."However, nobody's going to feel sorry for us.
"I'm not saying that expectations don't change to some degree when you have the bullpen that we started with and have the bullpen we have now.
"One of our expectations at the outset of the season was a deep, mix-and-match bullpen with high-powered arms ... Those are just not the pieces we're working with now so we have to be good working with the guys that we have right now and putting them in the best positions to succeed."
It's a tough ask. And if we're applying rational thought to the 2019 Phillies, firing a manager under these circ*mstances would bereactionary and unintelligent.
And those are two things the Phillies have ardently guarded against being.
Gabe Kapler was brought in to usher the Phillies into a new era. It's only fair he gets the chance to manage the team at full capacity.
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Contact Jeff Neiburg at jneiburg@delawareonline.com. Follow him on Twitter @Jeff_Neiburg.
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