Twins struggles, strikeouts rates soar, Rangers' outlook (2024)

More than two months remain until the trade deadline, more than four months remain until the end of the regular season. Reports of the Twins’ demise were premature. Projections of the Twins as sellers were premature. Check back on June 6, after the Twins complete their current 13-game stretch against the Orioles and Royals. Then maybe the picture will be clearer.

Hideous as the Twins were in the first seven weeks, they now have won six of seven, improving to 20-29. They are still 8 1/2 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central, still without injured center fielder Byron Buxton as well as right-hander Kenta Maeda, infielder Luis Arraez and others. But look at it this way: The Twins’ record is better than the Nationals’ 19-31 mark at a similar point in 2019. Which is not to say they will rally in similar fashion to win the World Series. But for just a little bit longer, can we let their season breathe?

The Twins were 5-4, with three of their losses coming in extra innings, when their season took a tumultuous turn. Their game on April 12 against the Red Sox was postponed after the shooting of a Black man, Daunte Wright, in a suburb of Minneapolis. They then had three more postponements from April 17-19 after three players and a staff member tested positive for COVID-19. Seventeen of their first 22 games were played in the afternoon, and often in cold weather, making it difficult for the players to establish a rhythm.

The Twins’ stop-and-start April does not fully excuse their bullpen’s deficiencies, offensive inconsistencies and other failings. And while Buxton was on an MVP trajectory when he went down with a strained right hip on May 7, injuries, too, are only so much of an excuse. Virtually every team is dealing with similar problems at a time when injury-list placements across Major League Baseball are up 30 percent compared to the league’s last full season, 2019.

Still, we’re talking about the AL Central, a division with three clubs in various stages of rebuilding, not the AL East, a division with four postseason contenders. The Tigers’ run differential is the worst in the AL. The Indians just lost right-hander Zach Plesac and designated hitter Franmil Reyes. The Royals recently had an 11-game losing streak. And the White Sox, while leading the AL in run differential, are without two of their best hitters, left fielder Eloy Jiménez and center fielder Luis Robert. They also are managed by Tony La Russa, meaning additional internal turmoil is possible.

Maybe the White Sox are too good to be undone by La Russa drama or their latest physical concerns, hamstring trouble for right-hander Michael Kopech and right fielder Adam Eaton. Maybe the Twins will fail to pound the Orioles and Royals in their next 10 games, going, say, 5-5 instead of 8-2 and forcing their front office to seriously consider selling. Club officials already are taking steps to account for that possibility, making sure they are well-acquainted with the farm systems of potential buyers.

Potential free agents such as designated hitter Nelson Cruz, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, right-hander Michael Pineda and lefty J.A. Happ would be the players the Twins are most likely to move. But the team also could entertain offers for Buxton, right-hander José Berríos and left-hander Taylor Rogers, all of whom are eligible for free agency after the 2022 season and have yet to get serious with the club on contract extensions.

No matter what the Twins do, they are set up well for the future. Outfielders Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach appear quite promising, and club officials are excited about a group of pitching prospects that includes Jhoan Duran, Matt Canterino, Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder and Chris Vallimont. But first there is a 2021 season to play. For the Twins, it is not over yet.

Strikeout rates soar everywhere

Think the strikeout rate is bad in the majors, which is on track to set a record for the 14th straight season? The problem is even more acute in the minors, where the walk percentage also is alarmingly high.

Consider this chart, courtesy of STATS Perform, which shows that the strikeout and walk rates in each of the 11 minor leagues through Tuesday exceeded the rates in the majors (the league with the highest walk rate, the Low A Southeast League, is the one using automated ball-strike technology in eight of nine parks).

The ballooning numbers appear to stem, in part, from the cancellation of the 2020 minor-league season. Some pitchers used their time to train with private coaches in an attempt to improve their velocities and spin rates, but not necessarily their command. Some hitters followed a similar path, working on their launch angles and exit velocities, but not necessarily their contact rates.

One executive also believes minor-league pitchers got ahead of the hitters during the shutdown because teams were able to monitor their throws through pitch-tracking technologies. On the other hand, the only minor-league hitters who saw live pitching, at least until Instructional League, were those at the alternate sites.

At least one team, the Twins, might have made an ill-fated decision based on what it saw in the Instructional League, declining to protect Akil Baddoo on its 40-man roster because of his huge strikeout rate during that time. The Tigers took Baddoo in the Rule 5 draft, and he is batting .245 with an .838 OPS in 113 plate appearances – albeit with a strikeout rate of 36.3 percent.

The soaring strikeout and walk rates in the minors, combined with an injury rate one executive described as “through the roof,” will increase the degree of difficulty for teams evaluating prospects as potential trade acquisitions. As another executive put it, “What am I supposed to make of a guy I’ve never heard of averaging 15 strikeouts per nine in A ball?”

Teams already were working with much less information than usual because of the absence of a minor-league season in 2020 and belated start in ’21. Some clubs were open to sharing video from the alternate sites and allowing rivals to scout their players in Instructional League and spring training. Others were not.

Changing story in Texas?

For months, many in the industry have speculated that the Rangers would be a major player in free agency for Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, a native of Irving, Tx. But the way Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is performing at short, the Rangers might focus on more glaring areas of need – pitching, most likely.

Kiner-Falefa, who won the American League Gold Glove at third base last season, leads all shortstops in defensive runs saved and ranks ninth in outs above average. To this point, he also is outperforming Story offensively, producing an adjusted OPS 14 percent above league average while Story is 5 percent below.

Part of the Rangers’ motivation for trading Elvis Andrus in February was to answer the question of whether Kiner-Falefa could handle short. They still could sign Story or another shortstop and move Kiner-Falefa back to third. But their top prospect, Josh Jung, is a third baseman, which is a big reason the Rangers wanted to look at Kiner-Falefa at short in the first place.

The Andrus trade, meanwhile, is turning into something of a bust for both sides. Andrus’ .487 OPS is the lowest in the majors. The other player the A’s acquired, backup catcher Aramis Garcia, has a .557 OPS and missed time with viral enteritis.

The Rangers haven’t fared better. Khris Davis missed the first five weeks with a strained left quad, and since returning has a .557 OPS in 41 plate appearances. Jonah Heim, a defense-first catcher, has a .616 OPS, while the third player in the deal for Texas, minor-league right-hander Dane Acker, will require season-ending elbow surgery.

Reds’ Castillo: Maybe not so much of a mystery

Entering the season, right-hander Luis Castillo loomed as a potentially strong trade candidate, perhaps even the best starting pitcher available if the Reds fell out of contention. But after 10 starts, Castillo has a 7.61 ERA in 47 1/3 innings, confounding Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson.

“I feel, frankly, like I’ve failed,” Johnson said.

Harsh as that self-critique sounds, Johnson explained such frustration is a normal part of his job. Good pitching coaches will dwell more on the pitchers who are not producing on a 12- or 13-man staff than the ones who are.

“If you’re doing it the right way, you probably feel that way most of the time,” Johnson said. “At the end of the day, it’s on them. But as a coach, it’s on you, too. It’s just trying to find solutions and help them get out of their own way, which is probably the biggest factor in a lot of it. Most of them aren’t really that far from being good. But they feel like they’re 100 miles away from it.”

Castillo, 28, actually might not be that far away, based on some of his underlying metrics. His .389 opponents’ batting average on balls in play is the highest in the majors by 35 points, a reflection of poor luck and perhaps the Reds’ defense, which ranks (next-to-last) in outs above average. The difference between Castillo’s opponents’ weighted on base-average and expected wOBA offers further evidence of his poor luck. It, too, is the highest in the league.

Those numbers figure to normalize over a larger sample, particularly when Castillo’s velocity is in the 89th percentile and his chase rate the 87th. For now, he simply is in a rut of inconsistency. As Johnson notes, hits off soft contact can snowball on a pitcher, who might follow with an ill-timed walk, or allow an extra-base hit that would not have been as damaging otherwise. But Johnson adds, “Besides the luck, there are some things that he has to clean up and we just have to be a little bit better at.”

The Reds, 4 1/2 games out in the NL Central, might choose to take their best shot at winning a mediocre division rather than sell. But if Castillo shows improvement, buyers again will be intrigued. He is earning $4.2 million this season, and then is under club control through arbitration for two more years.

Injuries mounting for Giants

As the oldest team in the majors, the Giants are particularly concerned about keeping players healthy. Their roster is designed to give manager Gabe Kapler viable alternatives when veteran position players need a break. And the success of their rotation hinges in part on Kapler, his coaches and the team’s athletic trainers coaxing the most out of pitchers who have dealt with injuries in the past.

So far, so good, at least in terms of how the team is performing: The Giants, at 30-19, are tied with the Dodgers for the second-best record in the majors, behind the NL West-leading Padres. The club, however, will face a season-long balancing act, and significant challenges are surfacing.

On Wednesday, the Giants lost two first basem*n – first Brandon Belt, who went on the injured list with a mild left oblique strain, and then his projected replacement, Darin Ruf, who suffered an apparent injury to his right hamstring running the bases at Chase Field (the team rallied to beat the Diamondbacks, 5-4, after its newly promoted first baseman, rookie Jason Vosler, hit his first career homer). Injuries to Tommy La Stella and Wilmer Flores already had left the infield thin. Two right-handed starting pitchers, Aaron Sánchez and Logan Webb, also are on the IL.

The play of Belt, 33; catcher Buster Posey, 34; shortstop Brandon Crawford, 34; and third baseman Evan Longoria, 35, has helped fuel the Giants’ impressive run. Each of those players boasts an OPS above .800, and Posey’s 1.024 would represent a career-high. But Longoria has played in 43 of the Giants’ 49 games, Crawford 42, Belt 40. The Giants almost certainly will need to rely on their depth going forward.

Backup catcher Curt Casali (.117 BA, .407 OPS) represents a significant offensive drop-off from Posey, but Ruf (six homers, .882 OPS) had filled in well for Belt. Flores, who is expected back from a strained right hamstring in the next week, plays first, second and third. La Stella, who is out until at least early July with a severely strained left hamstring, can do the same; the loss of his left-handed bat, in particular, limits Kapler’s ability to optimize matchups.

On the pitching side, the Giants somehow built one of the league’s best rotations around four free agents – Sánchez, Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani – on one-year deals. Both pitching coach Andrew Bailey and director of pitching Brian Bannister pitched in the majors and are fluent in analytics. Assistant pitching coach J.P. Martinez came from the Twins, a pitching-savvy organization. And the athletic training staff, club officials say, has played an important role in the team’s success, gaining the pitchers’ trust.

Giants management anticipated age- and injury-related issues with this club, and took steps to build in as much protection as possible. But ask the Mets, who also spent the winter building a thicker roster, only to end up with 17 players on the IL. In a season like this, no amount of protection is enough.

One proposal takes precedence over another

When Matt Duffy saw Jed Hoyer’s number pop up on his phone on Nov. 28, he thought, “I can’t do this right now. I’ve got to let it go to voicemail.” Duffy was a free agent, in need of a job. Hoyer is the Cubs’ president of baseball operations. But at the time Hoyer called, Duffy was in Napa Valley on a wine-tasting tour, preparing to propose to his girlfriend, Rachael Crow.

Duffy, who helped spark the Cubs’ surge in May before going on the injured list Tuesday with a lower back strain, had spoken to Hoyer the previous offseason before signing with the Rangers. He knew Hoyer already had spoken with his agent, Paul Cohen, and was planning to contact him directly. But less than an hour away from his proposal, he said he was trying to remain calm, act normal. He did not want to be distracted by a conversation about his future job prospects.

In the end, it all worked out. Crow said yes to Duffy’s proposal. Duffy returned Hoyer’s call the following afternoon. The Cubs announced the signing of Duffy to a minor-league contract on Dec. 16.

The wedding, meanwhile, is scheduled for November 2022.

Around the horn

• Is it time for the Angels to ease up on Shohei Ohtani? The two-way sensation appeared in 48 of the team’s first 49 games, and manager Joe Maddon included him in his lineup four of the six times he was on the mound.

Ohtani, who turns 27 on July 5, had his velocity dip in his last start, and twice the Angels have pushed back his starts for reasons unrelated to blister trouble. At the very least, perhaps it would be wise for the Angels to rest him on days after he pitches. He is 3-for-18 in such games – but Ohtani being Ohtani, two of those three hits were home runs.

• For years, injuries prevented Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer from emerging as a viable trade chip. But Fulmer, in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2019, looms as a potential difference-maker in a pennant race – out of the bullpen.

Fulmer, 28, is throwing 96 to 98 mph while pitching in relief for the first time, and in 20 innings in that role has produced 23 strikeouts, four walks and a 2.70 ERA. He is earning $3.1 million this season, and is under club control through arbitration next season as well.

• The American League Rookie of the Year race is shaping up as a doozy. The Rangers’ Adolis García has been almost as good in May as the White Sox’s Yermín Mercedes was in April – and is generating greater power overall.

Garcia: .324 OBP, 16 homers, .942 OPS

Mercedes: .384 OBP, six homers, .890 OPS

• And finally, one executive offers a potential solution to perhaps the most annoying unintended consequence of instant replay: The out call on a base-runner whose hand or foot comes briefly off the bag.

The executive suggests that the runner should be safe if he gets to the bag first and is still on the base after his momentum stops. An out call when a runner is slightly off the bag is not in the spirit of the rules, and the change in how such plays are called has led to more players sliding head-first and increasing their risk of injury.

(Top photo of Byron Buxton: Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)