Kimberly MillerPalm Beach Post
The 2024 hurricane season is goosing its engines in an unusual and unsettling area of the Atlantic Ocean for this time of year — the highly fertile basin between Africa and the Caribbean known for producing the most formidable tropical cyclones.
Meteorologists said it is rare for systems to bubble up in the main development region in June and early July with cutting wind shear and lukewarm sea surface temperatures typically acting as roadblocks until later in the season when shear weakens and the waters heat up.
Yet the National Hurricane Center is tracking an overeager tropical wave that tumbled off the African coast early this week. As of Thursday, the disturbance had an 80% chance of becoming a named storm over the next seven days.
Remember the Mean Season?: Two decades later, 2004 is remembered as the 'mean season' as hurricanes shredded Florida
The spot of disheveled showers and thunderstorms was several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday and taking advantage of sea surface temperatures that are 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal. It's also skirting under a healthy plume of storm deterring Saharan dust.
The NHC called the environmental conditions ahead of the system dubbed Invest 95L “unusually conducive for late June.”
There is no threat to Florida or the U.S. coast for now.
Will Redman, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service’s Miami office, said that it’s far too early to know if 95L could impact Florida but that the system should be monitored closely.
“Assuming the Bermuda High keeps its strength, that would be the main steering pattern that would force it west,” Redman said.
Invest 95L is earlier than normal
Typically, storms early in the hurricane season, which lasts through Nov. 30, form closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico or as spinoffs from springtime cool fronts.
They are not an indicator that the season will have more activity than normal, but there are exceptions.
Colorado State University senior researcher and hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach says there is a correlation between busy seasons and when early storms form east of the Caribbean Sea in the tropical Atlantic as 95L is likely to do.
More: 2024 hurricane season: Forecasts all point to a busy season with La Niña and warm ocean temps
It's happened in several of the past active hurricane seasons. Last year ended with 20 named storms including July's tropical storms Bret and Cindy that formed east of the Lesser Antilles.
The average hurricane season has 14 named storms.
In 2021, there were 21 named storms including June’s Hurricane Elsa and May’s Tropical Storm Ana, both of which formed east of the Caribbean.
Klotzbach said only seven years on record since 1851 have had named storms form in the tropical Atlantic east of Barbados and south of the northern coast of Hispaniola before July 4. Those include 1901, 1933, 1979, 2008, 2017, 2021 and 2023.
So far this season, only Tropical Storm Alberto has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico, sending flooding storm surge into Texas and torrential rains into Mexico.
The next names on the 2024 hurricane list are Beryl and Chris.
“It’s not unusual for waves to come off the coast of Africa this time of year but the prime time for them to become organized into tropical storms and hurricanes is the second half of August through September,” said Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather senior director of forecast operations. “Usually there’s too much dry air in the Atlantic and wind shear.”
Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist with Weather.com, questioned the viability of 95L in a social media post Thursday asking if there is enough wind shear and dry air to disrupt the system once it enters the Caribbean Sea next week.
Saharan dust still a player
But he notes ominously, we're "only about to step on the first rung of this ladder."
Research meteorologist Ryan Maue is more bullish on the system's potential.
"Forecasters becoming more concerned about disturbance out in the Atlantic that will likely develop into a tropical storm and powerful hurricane," he wrote on social media. "Nothing imminent, and 10-14 days away from any potential U.S. threat. So, we will watch!"
In the western Caribbean Sea, the NHC is also watching a sloppy tropical wave that has a 30% chance of developing over the next seven days as it moves west at about 20 mph. The system, which would likely impact Central America or Mexico, could run out of steam before it reaches land.
Most hurricane seasonal predictions called for an active year with several combustible climate and weather patterns present. Those include a hurricane friendly La Niña, which has a 65% chance of developing July through September, and record-warm sea surface temperatures that will provide ample fuel to any storm that does form.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She coversreal estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com.Help support our local journalism: Subscribe today.
