THE CONTENTS: The Mets continue their season-opening homestand with three games against the visiting Phillies, capped by a Wednesday matinee. [Update: Monday’s game has been postponed due to snow and rescheduled as part of a doubleheader on July 9th.)
THE EPIGRAPH: “The entire ball game, in terms of both the exam and life, was what you gave attention to vs. what you willed yourself to not.” —The Pale King, David Foster Wallace
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THE EXPOSITION: The Mets took two of three from the Cardinals at Citi Field, winning behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom before dropping the Sunday finale. They’re thus 2-1, tied for second in the NL East, a game behind the Nationals.
The Phillies dropped two of three in Atlanta in rather disastrous fashion. Philadelphia is, you guessed it, 1-2 and in last in the East, two games behind the Nats. What a tight race we have!
THE PITCHING MATCHUPS (Updated):
RHP Ben Lively (4-7, 4.26 ERA in 2017) v. RHP Matt Harvey (5-7, 6.70 ERA in 2017)
RHP Aaron Nola (0-0, 1.69 ERA in 2018) v.RHP Noah Syndergaard (1-0, 6.00 ERA in 2018)
TOTALLY IMPORTANT PITCHER-BATTER TRACK RECORDS WE SHOULD CARE DEEPLY ABOUT: Juan Lagares is 2-for-4 off Lively and Brandon Nimmo is 0-for-5! Mickey Callaway should not really factor this into who plays center field Tuesday night.
THE PROTAGONISTS: The Mets played two really crisp games in their wins on Thursday and Saturday. They pitched reasonably well, even if neither Syndergaard nor deGrom was at their best. They passed the baton in the batting order, to steal Brandon Nimmo’s phrase, exhibiting patience with a few St. Louis hurlers who struggled to find the strike zone and capitalizing on the Cardinals’ defensive miscues. They even ran the bases well.
Sunday was a bit of a letdown, with Steven Matz’s poor performance kind of sapping out the energy. The Mets were bad finishing series last season, and they started this one out the same way. But that last game shouldn’t take away that for the first 18 innings of this season, this looked like an honest-to-goodness good baseball team, in the process making one of its likeliest competitors for a postseason spot look inferior.
THE ANTAGONISTS: When you put everything that happened in the Phillies’ opening week series in Atlanta together, maybe the wildest thing is that they actually won one of the games. Gabe Kapler’s first exposure to big-league managing went almost unfathomably awry. He benched arguably his best player on Opening Day. He pulled his best pitcher after 68 effective pitches on Opening Day. He used 21 pitchers for 28 innings in the opening series, including shortstop Pedro Florimon, who made history as the first position player to ever take the hill in March. He summoned lefty Hoby Milner from the bullpen in Saturday’s series finale while Milner still had his warmup jacket on, having not thrown a warmup pitch.
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The Phillies knew they were getting something unorthodox when they hired Kapler, but the all-in commitment to his beliefs threatens to alienate his clubhouse in the first week of April.
THE CONFLICT: Can the Mets seize on Philadelphia’s nascent turmoil to take the series?
HAS A MANAGER EVER LOOKED THIS BAD THIS QUICK? I mean, I covered something close to a trainwreck with Bobby Valentine and the 2012 Red Sox, which went south fast and which still doesn’t feel totally comparable. Those Red Sox were swept in their first series in Detroit, including a series finale that included multiple blown saves. Three days later, Boston’s best player in Jacoby Ellsbury dislocated his shoulder and would miss the first half of the season. Two days after that, Valentine publicly criticized Kevin Youkilis and was publicly scolded in return by his star second baseman, Dustin Pedroia, and his general manager, Ben Cherington. And a week after that, his team blew a nine-run lead to the Yankees.
And still, that felt like it took longer to devolve than last weekend did for Kapler.
THAT SAID: Valentine’s team was over .500 into the month of August.
BUT ALSO SAID: Valentine’s team was extremely talented — more so than these Phillies.
ONE MORE THING SAID: Kapler does have the fortune of managing a considerably younger roster that has fewer bases of comparison than Valentine’s roster in Boston. Those Red Sox knew and won with and for the most part, liked Terry Francona. These Phillies don’t have a track record of major-league success to use as leverage in debates about the manager’s competence. It’d be weird if Scott Kingery echoed Pedroia and responded to a Kapler move with, “That’s really not the way we go about our stuff here. I’m sure he’ll figure that out soon.”
That’s a real quote from Pedroia then, by the way.
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THREE QUESTIONS—LIKE, YOU STILL HAVEN’T COME UP WITH A BETTER NAME FOR THIS? I was tempted by Trivia Troika, but it turns out that’s a late 1980s NES game imported from the Soviet Union.
HOW’S IT PLAYED? Remember Greed on Fox? Like that, except you started with three players instead of five.
THREE QUESTIONS WITH A BEAT WRITER: This week we’re bringing in Matt Gelb from The Athletic Philadelphia. Matt had the pleasure of being in Atlanta all weekend. His story after Saturday’s debacle is outstanding.
1. Will Gabe Kapler still be the manager on Monday night? The Phillies obviously knew this was an unorthodox hire, but how unexpected were the travails of Kapler’s first weekend?
GELB: How crazy is it that you’re even asking that question? That’s how the first three games went. It is hard to envision a worse start to a managerial tenure. Just about every in-game decision Kapler made backfired. Even some decisions he made before games — benching Odubel Herrera on Opening Day — were not the finest.
And… it was three games. No one is calling for Kapler’s head. Three games. But there are real questions about how the whole thing will work. Specifically, can a manager manage every game as if it is Game 6 of the World Series? Kapler played matchup with his bullpen in the sixth inning last Thursday. He did it in the fifth inningFriday. Then,on Saturday, he summoned a lefty specialist who had not yet thrown a warm-up pitch in the bullpen for a left-on-left matchup in thethird inning.This is not normal. I don’t think it’s unexpected, but the commitment to being different is at a level few could have anticipated. The Phillies are playing the percentages. It is why they will lift their starting pitchers when the opposing lineup turns over for a third time. It is why they will play positionless baseball, with few regulars in the lineup. It is why they will shift the positioning of their outfielders, even swapping the left and right fielders when the data tells them it is wise. (They did not do that in the first three games, and I would expect it sometime this week.)
So, yeah. Anything is possible.
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2. How much does Kapler’s plan to rely extensively on the bullpen change if Pat Neshek is out for a prolonged period of time?
GELB: The Phillies should have some more answers this week on Neshek, who is sidelined by shoulder soreness. The 37-year-old veteran is worried about it because he has never felt that kind of soreness before. Shoulder soreness is not what you want. Neshek is a key member of the bullpen, but it will not change how Kapler views the unit. He sees it as a strength. It is, on paper. They have some solid late-inning options in Hector Neris, Luis Garcia and Tommy Hunter (when he soon returns from the disabled list). Adam Morgan and Edubray Ramos are big swing-and-miss guys for the middle innings. Victor Arano is intriguing. But Kapler’s bullpen plan is reliant on those arms being, you know, available. The current usage pattern is concerning. The Phillies made 18 pitching changes in the first three games. That is not sustainable.
3. How is this all being taken in the clubhouse? Even after a spring training with Kapler, were the players taken aback a bit?
GELB: There is concern. I think that is fair to say. There is concern among the starters, who wonder whether they will operate with the shortest of leashes all season long. There is concern among the relievers, who wonder whether they’ll still be able to throw a baseball by July. There is concern among the position players, who wonder if there will be enough playing time to keep everyone happy and productive. This whole experiment was contingent on Kapler gaining the trust of his players. Spring training was a wonderful time for everyone. There were talent shows, motivational speakers, social-media contests, fun slogans, and reduced workloads. But the first three games mutilated those good vibes. Three games, right? Inside the clubhouse, they know the meaning of three games. And, still, there is concern.
RECENT SERIES HISTORY: The Mets have owned the Phillies since the latter last won the East in 2011. New York has taken the season series each of the last six seasons, including a 38-19 record against Philadelphia over the last three. The Mets beat the Phillies 12 times in 19 tries last year, with a 5-4 mark at Citi Field.
Over 969 all-time matchups between the two squads, the Phillies have outscored the Mets by a total of 40 runs.
THAT’S A LOT OF GAMES: The Mets have played more games against the Phillies than against any other franchise, which makes sense when you realize that:
A. Philadelphia and Montréal/Washington are the only teams that have been in New York’s division since 1969.
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B. The Expos/Nationals didn’t exist for the Mets’ first seven seasons, leaving them a distant second to the Phillies.
WHAT THE ATHLETIC IS TELLING YOU TO THINK: Syndergaard and deGrom are the known quantities; the Mets’ fate will rest with the likes of Matz and Harvey.
PREDICTION TIME: I’m out on a limb here, but: Gabe Kapler will make a mid-inning pitching change sometime this week at Citi Field.
(Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images)
Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton
